Forecasting Change: The Power of Predictability in Leading Transitions

This article is adapted from Ted's podcast episode 342: End With Predictability (Leadership & Process)

I want to talk about something that's been on my mind as we close out another school year, project, or season – the critical importance of creating predictability during transitions.

You know that feeling when you're driving somewhere unfamiliar without GPS, and you have absolutely no idea where you're heading? That knot in your stomach, that slight edge of anxiety creeping in? That's exactly how our teams, staff, and students feel when we fail to forecast changes that are coming their way.

Let me share something powerful with you: People need to mentally wrap their minds around what's coming, whether they like it or not, because change is difficult for all of us, regardless of age.

The Change Dilemma: Why We Keep People in the Dark

I'm often asked, "Ted, why do leaders always wait as long as possible to share upcoming changes?"

The answer is pretty simple, though not very flattering to those of us in leadership positions. We lack the courage to forecast what's coming because we dread the criticism that inevitably follows. Let's be honest – nobody gets a standing ovation for announcing big changes!

But here's what happens when we keep people in the dark:

1. They create their own narratives – usually filled with worst-case scenarios (think horror movie plot lines).
2. They become defensive and angry before they even have accurate information.
3. Or worse, they remain completely unprepared, then react with shock and resistance when change arrives.

Neither scenario creates the conditions for successful transitions. Neither scenario supports well-being or engagement.

Learning from a Golf Course: A Story of Predictability

When I was 21 years old in college, I worked at a golf course under construction. I'd somewhat exaggerated my Spanish-speaking abilities on my application and suddenly found myself in charge of a crew of men from Mexico – talk about being thrown into the deep end!

But I learned something incredible during that summer job that has stayed with me throughout my leadership journey. Every morning, we'd have a brief meeting to discuss our objectives for the day, what equipment we needed, and how to prepare.

The magic, though, happened at the end of each day. The crew chiefs would come in 30 minutes early the next morning, and the rest of us would arrive 15 minutes early, giving us time for what my boss called a "debrief" and "pre-brief."

We'd review what we'd accomplished, discuss any issues with equipment or materials, and then – here's the golden part – we'd talk about what we were doing tomorrow, the day after, and the day after that.

This simple practice gave me something incredibly valuable: time to mentally prepare. If I knew the next day would involve difficult manual labor digging out sand traps, I might leave feeling frustrated about the hard work ahead. But by the time I arrived the next morning, I was ready. I knew to bring extra water, wear sunscreen, and prepare myself physically and mentally.

That's what predictability does – it gives people the gift of preparation.

The Missed Opportunity in Education

Let me share another idea I've had for years that illustrates this principle in education. What if, during the last week of school, we let seniors go home for two days and had every other grade level advance to experience their next year's environment?

Imagine kindergartners spending a day in first grade, fifth graders in sixth grade, eighth graders in ninth grade – meeting their future teachers, learning classroom expectations, seeing their schedules, and getting familiar with new buildings.

Instead, what do we typically do? We host brief "transitionary days" where kids are lumped into anxious groups, trying to look cool while hiding their nervousness. Then we act surprised when freshmen get lost in high school hallways or kindergartners don't know basic classroom procedures on their first day.

When I first proposed this idea as a superintendent, I hit what I call "the Berlin Wall of resistance." My principals immediately pushed back: "What about busing? How would we communicate? What if a kid gets lost?"

In retrospect, I realize I'd failed to properly forecast my own change! I came in hot with an idea without giving people time to process and prepare. I should have said, "I have this idea that I'd like to implement next year. Here's what I'm thinking, and here's why. What would we need to make this work?"

That's the power of forecasting – it works for leaders implementing change and for those experiencing it.

The Science Behind Predictable Transitions

The research on creating predictable processes during transitions is compelling:

1. Reducing anxiety and stress: When people know what to expect, they're less likely to feel overwhelmed. Predictability helps them prepare mentally and emotionally, which lowers stress levels and promotes stability.

2. Fostering psychological safety: When people feel safe to express concerns, ask questions, and participate in the change process, mental well-being improves and healthier engagement follows.

3. Building trust: Clear, consistent communication about what will happen, when, and why builds trust in leadership. Trust reduces fear and speculation, which can be emotionally draining.

4. Enabling personal control: When change processes are predictable, individuals and teams can better plan, adapt, and make decisions. This sense of control is empowering rather than making people feel like passive victims.

5. Creating coping mechanisms: People can better activate their coping strategies when they know what's coming. If you're familiar with CliftonStrengths, you know exactly which strengths you'll lean into during changes, which might create blind spots, and which will be your default reactions.

6. Promoting stability: Even during major shifts, predictability in the process provides a constant that helps people feel grounded, which is especially important during prolonged or disruptive changes.

A Simple, Powerful Tool: The Change T-Chart

So what's the process I recommend? It couldn't be simpler: create a single-page document with a T-chart that everyone can see.

On the left side: "What to Expect in the Coming Months" On the right side: "How to Prepare"

That's it! No need for comprehensive white papers or lengthy blogs. Just clear, concise information that helps people see what's coming and how to get ready for it.

On the "What to Expect" side, include:

• New initiatives or processes coming next year
• Current practices that will be changed or iterated
• Things we will stop doing altogether

Be sure to include both higher-order changes that will significantly impact the culture and any lower-order changes that might upset people.

Don't forget things like:

• Changes to health insurance or benefits
• New implementations of projects or curricula
• Upcoming training requirements
• Policy changes
• Schedule adjustments

On the "How to Prepare" side, provide:

• Resources available
• Professional development opportunities
• Opt-in options for additional training or support
• Important dates and deadlines
• Recommended reading, videos, or podcasts
• Q&A sessions planned for the summer
• Websites with additional information
• Contacts for internal or external experts

This approach allows everyone to opt into navigating their own preparation journey. Nobody feels ambushed or blindsided by sudden changes.

Summer Anxiety and Back-to-School Surprises

Let me get personal for a moment. I live with two educators – my wife, who will be entering her 30th year of teaching, and my son. I've watched what I lovingly call "Summer Megan" spend countless summers foreshadowing her upcoming school year, mentally preparing for what's ahead.

Then some "dipsticks" (that's what I call them) go to a conference in July and decide to completely disrupt the staff's vision for the year with brand new initiatives announced in August. I was one of those dipsticks at times in my leadership career!

Suddenly, all the energy and excitement that comes with a new school year deflates like air rushing out of a balloon. All because some leader had a "good idea" but failed to forecast it properly.

Think about teachers sitting around all summer contemplating their upcoming year, planning for their students, setting expectations – only to be blindsided by major changes at the last minute. Is it any wonder they resist?

What if instead, we sent them home for summer with a simple sheet of paper saying, "Here's what's coming, and here's how to prepare"? I guarantee most would actually do both those things!

Moving from Reactive to Proactive Leadership

The key is to be upfront as soon as possible. Stop creating narratives in your head that everyone will be angry or resistant – most won't be. Only a handful of people typically push back against change, especially when you:

1. Include all the facts
2. Create opportunities for self-directed learning
3. Empower your staff to prepare in ways that work for them

When you do this, you'll see remarkable benefits:

• Reduced anxiety and stress
• Greater psychological safety
• Increased trust and transparency
• Enhanced personal and team control
• Stronger coping mechanisms
• A more stable culture during transitions
• People who are actually excited to come back and tackle new challenges

Remember COVID? Let's Not Repeat That Experience

Think back to the early days of the COVID pandemic. Remember the anxiety of not knowing what would happen next? Driving to grocery stores to find empty shelves where toilet paper used to be? The daily uncertainty about masks, social distancing, and quarantine procedures?

That's exactly how people feel during poorly managed organizational change. They panic, they hoard resources (whether physical or emotional), and they make decisions based on fear rather than facts.

Imagine if we'd been told, "Here's what's coming for the next three months. The government will provide financial support. You'll spend more time with your family. You'll discover shows like Tiger King that you've never heard of before." Maybe we wouldn't have had a nationwide run on toilet paper!

From Adults to Kids: Everyone Deserves Predictability

This principle doesn't just apply to adult staff members – our students deserve the same consideration.

Instead of spending the last week of school watching movies and having field days, what if we used that time to show students what they'll learn next year? To provide resources for summer preparation? To give parents and guardians specific ways to support their children's learning, regardless of their means or circumstances?

The library itself is "a step into both a time machine and the entire universe" – there are countless free resources available if we just point people in the right direction.

Charge Forward with Confidence

When we create predictable transitions, people within our culture find success, stay engaged, and advocate for their own needs. They feel empowered rather than victimized by change.

That's what we do as leaders – we think smart, act with intention, and charge into the storms we face, especially when we can see them coming.

So I challenge you: Describe your current process for supporting change. List the changes coming and analyze how you've shared those changes. Then describe how you can be less reactive and more proactive in your change process.

Stop worrying about what might happen if you lead change boldly, and shift your mindset to: "Here's where we think we're heading, and this is what we'll need."

The truth is, we're often more worried about how we'll feel during change than how others will experience it. That's backward thinking. True leadership means being empathetic, wondering how others will experience changes, and then empowering them to navigate those changes successfully.

Because that's what leaders do – we create the conditions for others to thrive, even during periods of significant change.

Until next time, Smart Thinkers – keep forecasting change, creating predictability, and charging forward!